Computergest├╝tzte Epidemiologie
Mathematische Modellierung
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Estimation of smallpox transmission parameters

Evaluation of historical data of a smallpox epidemic occurring in 1967 in Abakaliki, Nigeria, revealed, that the basic reproduction number of smallpox was approximately 6.5 (95% confidence interval from 4 to 9.9), that the infections mainly spread in the households of infectious individuals and among their close contacts, that the spread of infection before the onset of the typical smallpox rash was rare or non-existent. These results confirm textbook knowledge, but contrast strikingly with assumptions made in the current discussions and modelling approaches in the bioterrorism debate.