Computergest├╝tzte Epidemiologie
Mathematische Modellierung
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INFTRANS - an EU-funded project on emerging infectious diseases

The international cooperation INFTRANS has the following interlinked research objectives:

  • to establish a data warehouse of key and population movement and demographic data which will enable the realistic modelling of infectious disease spread within and between EU member states;
  • to collate and analyse available data on feasible ranges of key biological and epidemiological parameters for infectious agents identified as posing the greatest potential outbreak risk;
  • to develop a suite of modelling approaches to identify the level of model complexity required to evaluate accurately the potential scale of disease outbreaks and the expected impact of intervention options for a range of possible release scenarios;
  • to understand the impact of large-scale population contact networks defined by individual movement patterns and social mixing on the spatio-temporal spread of infectious disease outbreaks, and to identify the implications for intervention targeting;
  • to develop novel statistical methods to estimate unknown model parameters by fitting of transmission models to both historical data and outbreak data being collected in real time;
  • to develop new tools for real-time prediction of disease outbreaks, and to characterise the limits placed on predictability by parameter uncertainty and system stochasticity.

The described INFTRANS programme complements the MODELREL project by focusing on longer-term, more research-oriented issues.